Understanding Pancreatic Cancer

What Are the Risk Factors for Pancreatic Cancer?

Last updated and reviewed on June 24, 2026.

A risk factor is anything that raises the chance that a person will develop a certain disease. Having one or more risk factors does not mean you will definitely get pancreatic cancer, and many people who are diagnosed with it have none of the known risk factors. Still, understanding what raises risk helps you and your doctor have informed conversations about your health, your family history, and whether any preventive steps or monitoring might make sense for you.

What Raises Your Risk for Developing Pancreatic Cancer?

• Smoking: Smoking is the most significant modifiable risk factor for pancreatic cancer. People who smoke are about twice as likely to develop pancreatic cancer as non-smokers. The more a person has smoked over their lifetime, the higher the risk. The good news is that former smokers have a lower risk than current smokers, and that risk continues to decrease over time after quitting. Cigarette smoking is thought to be responsible for about 20 to 30 percent of all cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.
• Obesity and Excess Body Weight: Being overweight or obese is a well-documented risk factor for pancreatic cancer. People with obesity have about a 20 percent higher risk of developing pancreatic cancer compared to people at a healthy weight, and the risk appears to increase with the degree of excess weight. Carrying extra weight around the midsection (abdominal obesity) may be particularly relevant. Obesity is also linked to chronic inflammation and insulin resistance, both of which may contribute to cancer development.
• Type 2 Diabetes: People with type 2 diabetes have a roughly 1.5 to 2 times higher risk of pancreatic cancer compared to those without diabetes. The relationship between diabetes and pancreatic cancer is complicated: long-standing diabetes appears to raise cancer risk, but pancreatic cancer can also cause or worsen diabetes by destroying insulin-producing cells. When an older adult without obvious risk factors develops diabetes suddenly, particularly if they are not overweight, it is worth discussing with a doctor whether a pancreatic evaluation is warranted.
• Chronic Pancreatitis: Chronic pancreatitis is a long-term inflammation of the pancreas that does not heal properly, often causing scarring and permanent damage over time. It is associated with a significantly elevated risk of pancreatic cancer, with some studies suggesting a 10 to 20 times higher risk compared to the general population over a lifetime. Chronic pancreatitis caused by inherited gene mutations (hereditary pancreatitis) carries an especially high lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer.
• Age: Pancreatic cancer is rare before age 45. The risk increases substantially with age. About 90 percent of people diagnosed with pancreatic cancer are over age 55, and the average age at diagnosis is around 71. Age is not something that can be changed, but it helps doctors understand who is most likely to benefit from closer monitoring.
• Family History and Inherited Gene Mutations: About 10 percent of pancreatic cancers are linked to an inherited genetic cause. Having a first-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) with pancreatic cancer doubles or triples your own risk. If two or more first-degree relatives have had pancreatic cancer, the risk is substantially higher and may meet criteria for a hereditary pancreatic cancer surveillance program.
• Specific inherited syndromes: These raise pancreatic cancer risk, including mutations in the:
  • BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes
  • Lynch syndrome (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, or PMS2 mutations)
  • Familial atypical multiple mole melanoma (FAMMM) syndrome (CDKN2A mutations)
  • Peutz-Jeghers syndrome (STK11 mutations)
  • Hereditary pancreatitis (PRSS1 or SPINK1 mutations)

People with these conditions are typically referred to surveillance programs involving regular imaging of the pancreas.

• Race and Ethnicity: Pancreatic cancer is more common in Black or African American individuals than in white, Hispanic, or Asian American individuals. The reasons for this disparity are not fully understood but likely include differences in rates of risk factors like smoking, diabetes, and obesity, as well as differences in access to medical care and screening.
• Sex: Pancreatic cancer is slightly more common in men than in women, though the difference is modest. Rates in women have been rising in recent years, possibly reflecting changes in smoking patterns and rates of obesity.
• Heavy Alcohol Use: Heavy, long-term alcohol consumption raises the risk of chronic pancreatitis, which in turn raises the risk of pancreatic cancer. The association between alcohol use and pancreatic cancer is likely mediated through pancreatitis rather than being a direct cause of cancer in most cases.
• Diet: A diet high in red meat and processed meat and low in fruits and vegetables has been associated with a modestly higher risk of pancreatic cancer in some studies, though the evidence is not as strong as for some other risk factors. A diet high in saturated fat may also contribute by promoting obesity and insulin resistance.
• Occupational Exposures: Long-term workplace exposure to certain chemicals, including pesticides, benzene, and petrochemicals, has been associated with a modestly higher risk of pancreatic cancer in some studies. Dry-cleaning and metal-working industries have also been studied. If you work in one of these industries, following safety guidelines and minimizing chemical exposure is important for your overall health.
• Stomach Problems: A history of chronic stomach inflammation (such as from Helicobacter pylori infection) has been associated with a modestly higher pancreatic cancer risk in some research, though the evidence is less definitive than for other risk factors.

Factors That May Lower Your Risk of Pancreatic Cancer

While there is no guaranteed way to prevent pancreatic cancer, several factors are associated with a lower risk, and some are within your control:

• Not smoking or quitting smoking is the single most impactful step most people can take to lower their pancreatic cancer risk. Former smokers have a meaningfully lower risk than current smokers, and the risk continues to fall the longer a person has been smoke-free.
• Maintaining a healthy body weight through regular physical activity and a balanced diet can reduce the hormonal and inflammatory drivers that contribute to pancreatic cancer risk.
• Managing diabetes effectively may help lower risk, particularly for people whose diabetes is still at the prediabetes stage, where lifestyle changes can sometimes reverse or delay progression.
• Limiting alcohol reduces the risk of chronic pancreatitis, which in turn lowers the long-term risk of pancreatic cancer.
• Eating a plant-rich diet high in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains and lower in red and processed meats is associated with better overall cancer risk reduction, even if the evidence specifically for pancreatic cancer is not definitive.
• Knowing your family history and seeking genetic counseling and surveillance if you have a hereditary risk can lead to earlier detection, which dramatically improves outcomes.

Sources:

1. American Cancer Society. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Factors. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/pancreatic-cancer/causes-risks-prevention/risk-factors.html
2. Pancreatic Cancer Action Network. Risk Factors. https://www.pancan.org/facing-pancreatic-cancer/about-pancreatic-cancer/risk-factors/
3. Bosetti C, et al. Cigarette smoking and pancreatic cancer: an analysis from the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium. Annals of Oncology. 2012;23(7):1880-1888. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22104574/
4. Calle EE, et al. Overweight, obesity, and mortality from cancer in a prospectively studied cohort of U.S. adults. New England Journal of Medicine. 2003;348(17):1625-1638. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa021423
5. Lowenfels AB, Maisonneuve P. Risk factors for pancreatic cancer. Journal of Cellular Biochemistry. 2005;95(4):649-656. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15849724/
6. National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN). NCCN Guidelines: Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma. 2024. https://www.nccn.org/guidelines/guidelines-detail?category=1&id=1455